Eli Gieryna

H/T to Desipio for this one, but I greatly enjoyed this error from the Daily Herald today.

The copy has been fixed, but I caught a screengrab from the time it was up (click for larger version).

Someone managed to swipe the cable box from my apartment’s workout complex, so when I go to work out, the only channel the TV can get is CBS.  From careful monitoring of the network during prime-time hours, I have concluded that this is the extent of CBS programming.

I love the NFL Draft.  I love the absolute ridiculous optimism that comes attached to every draft pick, simply because we haven’t had the opportunity to watch them suck yet as professional football players.

As fans, we have the amazing ability to read scouting reports of these players, drool over their alleged strengths and ignore the cognitive dissonance that comes from reading their weaknesses.  In fact, I’ve found that it’s best to just ignore the weaknesses altogether.

I’ve taken the Bears first five draft picks below and listed some of the relevant information from scouts.  Following that, I will draw my own conclusions from the scouting reports, offer a player comparison and a draft grade.

Again, I love the NFL Draft.

Jarron Gilbert  (DT,  San Jose State)
Scouting report: Very athletic.  Extremely quick.  Terrific natural strength and power. Big, strong hands. Nice balance and agility.  Is able to penetrate and make plays in the backfield.  Tons of upside.
Player comparison: Based on his athleticism, quickness and ability to jump out of a swimming pool, I’d say the closest comparison for Gilbert is a more athletic Reggie White.
Grade: A++++++++++

Juaquin Iglesias (WR, Oklahoma)
Scouting report: Good size and bulk. Decent athleticism and very smooth.  Soft, reliable hands. Good ball skills and body control.  Excellent route runner. Elusive with great vision. Can do some damage after the catch. Very tough.
Player comparison: Based on the reports of his intelligence, polish and route-running, Iglesias’ best comparison is a combination of Derrick Mason and Reggie Wayne.
Grade: A++++

Henry Melton (DE, Texas)
Scouting report: Extremely athletic.  Good speed and quickness.  Explosive with a burst.  Great balance and agility.  Does a terrific job in pursuit and closes fast.  Good  strength. Has a lot of upside.
Player comparison: While not as elite of a line prospect as Gilbert, Melton should probably have a career pretty similar to Jared Allen, minus the off-field troubles.
Grade: A+++

D.J. Moore (CB, Vanderbilt)
Scouting report: Highly athletic. Very quick and agile. Terrific hands and ball skills. Good leaper. Nice instincts and awareness. Tough and plays physical. Lots of experience versus top competition
Player comparison: I still can’t believe the Bears were able to pick the next Charles Woodson this late in the draft.
Grade: A+

Johnny Knox (WR, Abilene Christian)
Scouting report: Smooth athlete. Outstanding timed speed. Quick with great acceleration and a burst. Reliable hands. Elusive. Nice vision and instincts. Vertical threat who can really separate.
Player comparison: With his top-flight speed, Knox is probably best described as a hybrid of Tim Brown and Joey Galloway.
Grade: A+++

Marcus Freeman (OLB, Ohio State)
Scouting report: Excellent athleticism. Great speed. Quick and agile.  Has sideline-to-sideline range. Reads and reacts well. Reliable tackler. Smart with good instincts.  Able to match up in coverage. Offers positional versatility.
Player comparison: Lance Briggs, with the instincts of Zach Thomas, the heart of a lion and the courage of a Navy SEAL.
Grade: Three thumbs up.

Al Afalava (S, Oregon State)
Scouting report: Enforcer in the middle of the field. Reputation across the Pac-10 as the hardest hitting safety in the league. Sound tackler in the open field and quick to sniff out the draw and attack the line of scrimmage on running plays. Zone coverage and understanding is above average.
Player comparison: Post-2006 Adam Archuleta.  I guess not every pick can be great.
Grade: D.

Meryl loves Meryl
Oh yes, dear, watch how I act!
Oscar noms for me

This is a story that has been slowly getting a little bit more buzz in the last 2-3 years, though still probably not the amount that it justifies: Why having the top pick in the NFL Draft, or even a pick in the top 10, can be a curse because of the incredible contracts they command.

Freakonomics is talking about it, as well as everyone’s favorite daughter-promoting, Favre-lovin’, coffee-obsessing sportswriter, Peter King.

Dan Pompei also weighs in on the topic at MSNBC, where he talks about how second-round picks are now the most coveted choices in the NFL.  Not surprisingly, the Patriots have accumulated three second-rounders in this year’s draft.  He also cites Bears GM Jerry Angelo, who seems almost giddy to be rid of the first-rounders he gave up in the Cutler trade.

On one hand, I applaud the Moneyball-like thinking of NFL front offices, who are embracing the idea of value and efficiency.  Instead of the old-school idea of blindly moving up to get the highest choice possible, why not move down, since the talent level falls off slower at a much slower rate than the dollar values?

On the other hand, doesn’t this seem like a pretty easy problem to fix?

From the previously-mentioned King article:

Reader Matt: “I think all the bad teams are desperate to move down in the draft, especially this year — but who’s going to trade up, even if the player has a chance to be better, if it costs two, three, maybe four times as much as your current pick? I think the reason we’ve had such a disparity in the 2000’s within the N.F.L. (e.g. 2008 winless Lions, 2007 unbeaten Patriots) is because the teams that make the playoffs are rewarded with better-valued draft choices. It’s unfair, period. Why is this not the main story from the media during this year’s draft?”

King: Brilliant point, Matt. The league has appointed a committee — with interested parties Tom Lewand of the Lions and Scott Pioli of the Chiefs, both of whom have picks in the top three of the draft — to study the problem of bad teams being penalized by the highest picks making so much money that it’s actually a penalty to pick in the top 10. The solution, I believe, is to give the bad teams a choice where they want to pick. That sounds insane, but why wouldn’t you allow the worst team to analyze the talent in the draft, and if there’s no player the club feels is worth the top pick, allow that team to pick sixth or eighth, for example.

Sure, I suppose it’d be great theater to let teams choose their first-round draft choices based on their records.  But it would also be a public relations nightmare for the worst teams; can you imagine a GM of 3-13 team trying to justify why he wanted the 15th draft slot?  “Picking 15th instead of second will save us a lot of money,” he’d say.  And then he’d be hunted down and bludgeoned to death by an angry mob, because there is nothing sports fans hate more than when their teams appear cheap.

All novel ideas aside, it seems like the best solution is the most obvious one — adjust the rules so draft choices don’t get as much money.  The NBA system simply pays players a certain amount based on draft slot, and I see no reason why the NFL can’t adopt a similar process.

In the meantime, I’ll eagerly await the Lions’ selection of Matt Stafford, with hopes that he gets $60 million to be Ryan Leaf, setting the Lions’ rebuilding effort back another five years.

Predictable plot
Will Smith makes scrunchy faces
Death by jellyfish

Ones I’ve seen in the past few days:

“I’m one of the many addicted to caffeine; my body can’t get by without its own personal stimulus package each morning.”

“Cutler will provide a much-needed boost to a Bears offense that was in need of a bailout last season.”

There are many more offenders. Please stop.

In a sometimes-annual tradition, JR Radcliffe and I are posting our 2009 baseball predictions so we, and you, can look at them in October and laugh about how wrong we were.  I pored over my projections for hours and hours, utilizing mounds of data, insight and historical comparisons; JR wrote his in five minutes and e-mailed them to me.

NL Central Winner

Eli: Chicago Cubs. I remain wounded from last October’s Tracy Morgan Ridiculous Disaster, but I’m still willing to predict that the Cubs will win the division.  The last time the Cubs made the playoffs three straight years?  1906-1908.  The end of that run just happens to coincide with the last time they …. oh, forget it, you already know.

JR: Chicago Cubs. Duh.

NL East Winner

Eli: Atlanta Braves. I think the team is back to having elite pitching, having added Derek Lowe and Javy Vazquez to anchor their rotation.  They’ve got a lot of good young players who are set to improve, and I think they’ll end up eking out a first-place finish in a pretty tough division.  If Chipper Jones can stay healthy for 140 or more games, that’ll help immensely (this type of “if Good Player X is good, his team will be good” analysis is brought to you by Tim McCarver).

JR: Philadelphia Phillies. I maintain that New York’s shortcomings the past two seasons have been coincidental, and their offense will be firmly entrenched in its prime. But the only changes I can see from last year’s World Series champion are for the better.

NL West Winner

Eli: Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Diamondbacks are young and pretty good, the Dodgers just have too much talent not to win the division.  The offense is the best in the division, and there’s enough starting pitching to get the job done, even without Derek Lowe.  Clayton Kershaw could be a real difference-maker for the rotation — a 3.50 ERA isn’t out of the question for him.

JR: Los Angeles Dodgers. They have an offense to match the Cubs, except the majority of those hitters are just reaching their prime. It’s scary how good that can be. They don’t have the Cubs’ pitching, but it’s not bad, and I think they might be the team to beat in the NL.

NL Wild Card

Eli: New York Mets. Too much talent to miss the playoffs again.  I’m not reading too much into the collapses of the past two years.

JR: New York Mets. Finally, they clinch. Their bullpen’s reconstruction was the final missing piece.

AL Central Winner

Eli: Kansas City Royals. Yeah, I’m probably nuts.  But I really like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, Meche and Greinke are great anchors for the pitching staff, and Dayton Moore did a nice job shoring up the bullpen.  This pick has as much to do with the mediocrity of the rest of the AL Central as it does with the Royals’ ability, but even still, I think the Royals are going to be an actual major-league team this year.  Their main problem last year was not scoring runs, and I think they’ve added a few pieces that’ll get them over the hump.  Or at least halfway up the hump, with the top of it in sight, if you squint a little bit and turn your head to the left.

JR: Cleveland Indians. Nobody is convinced Cliff Lee will keep it going, but last year’s BABIP suggests otherwise. Suppose Fausto finally fruitions, and now the pitching staff is redonkulous. There really isn’t disputing their offense’s capabilities either – they’re the best of a weak division.

AL East Winner

Eli: Boston Red Sox. They’re probably the best team in baseball.  A loaded offense, a lights-out bullpen and seven passable starting pitchers for depth.  I think they have the best shot of any team at 100 wins.

JR: Boston Red Sox. AJ Burnett will break, Alex Rodriguez will wilt in the post-steroid smog, and Atlas Sabathia will stop shrugging eventually. The Rays were cute last year, but the probability of the Red Sox being awesomeness remains too great.

AL West Winner

Eli: Oakland A’s. This division is pretty bad.  Matt Holliday is a good hitter anywhere, regardless of whether his numbers were inflated by Coors (they were).  He’ll be a big presence in the middle of the order, and Jason Giambi and Jack Cust will provide some pop behind him.  The starting pitching is pretty young, but it’ll do here.  I think 85 wins take the West.

JR: Anaheim Angels. Without much thought, I’ll just say the Angels, because they always win and it’s never close.

AL Wild Card

Eli: New York Yankees. They’ll return to the playoffs after their brief hiatus.  Too much offense not to creep back toward 90 wins.  And, of course, they added one of the best pitchers in baseball in the offseason.  That can’t hurt.  If everyone stays healthy, it’s probably the best starting rotation 1-5 in the majors.

JR: New York Yankees. They have the best combined Win Values of any team in baseball.

NL MVP

Eli: David Wright. He’s exactly the kind of player that baseball writers would love to give an MVP award to.  This is the year they’ll finally give it to him, since everyone is bored with Albert Pujols’ excellence.

JR: Albert Pujols. (JR did not provide an explanation, but I imagine he meant to say, “Pujols is still in his prime, is a stud, I am from Milwaukee and I love Danny Gokey and bowling.)

AL MVP

Eli: Grady Sizemore. This was actually a tough call.  Most of baseball’s superstars seem to be in the National League, which makes the MVP race in the AL dependent on a lot of other factors that are hard to project.  However, if the Indians get into the playoffs, Sizemore might finally get the recognition he deserves.  One of baseball’s lowest-profile superstars, he’ll probably end up with another 30-30 season and one of those “lifetime achievement/make-up call” MVPs that are awarded because a great player hasn’t gotten one yet in the past.

JR: Grady Sizemore. (JR did not provide an explanation, but I imagine he meant to say, “Sizemore is just entering his prime, is a stud, I am from Milwaukee and I love Danny Gokey and bowling.)

NL Cy Young

Eli: Brandon Webb. He’s consistently awesome, and he’ll be awesome again this season.  The Diamondbacks’ offense should be better this year, which will probably help him get a few more wins.  You know, THE single-most important criteria for Cy Young voters.

JR: Cole Hamels. If he doesn’t break down, he’s a superstar.

AL Cy Young

Eli: CC Sabathia. With the Yankees’ offense behind him, he’ll get plenty of run support, inflating his WIN TOTALS.  That’ll be enough for the voters if the Yankees can get into the playoffs.

JR: James Shields. If Tampa continues to contend, it will because of its bright young pitching staff.

Just caught Mr. Baseball on HBO in my hotel room. Curious what you all think about the international sociological issues presented in the movie. I thought Schepisi was clearly aiming for a movie about the difficulties of assimilation (as he also did with Iceman), which he nailed, but I’m left wondering if Jack experienced re-entry shock when he returned to the United States with Hiroko (I’d like to see these issues further explored and presented in a Mr. Baseball 2). Also, while Jack possibly felt an attraction to Hiroki based partly on the novelty of her different ethnicity, did she likewise experience an attraction to him based on the fact he was unusually hairy? I felt that this plot point was undeveloped.

As I’m sure you’ll notice, I’ve changed the design of my blog. I’m still tweaking a few things, but I think this is prettier. Bear with me as I work on it a little bit more. And bear with me as I post three times a month for the next year.

I’m working to make the left content pane wider on the home page.  I will recommend that if you want to read a post, click on the headline and it’ll take you to a new page with just that post.  It’ll look much better.  Additionally, old posts may look funny since the photos sizes are likely to be way too big for the current layout.