2009 Baseball Predictions

In a sometimes-annual tradition, JR Radcliffe and I are posting our 2009 baseball predictions so we, and you, can look at them in October and laugh about how wrong we were.  I pored over my projections for hours and hours, utilizing mounds of data, insight and historical comparisons; JR wrote his in five minutes and e-mailed them to me.

NL Central Winner

Eli: Chicago Cubs. I remain wounded from last October’s Tracy Morgan Ridiculous Disaster, but I’m still willing to predict that the Cubs will win the division.  The last time the Cubs made the playoffs three straight years?  1906-1908.  The end of that run just happens to coincide with the last time they …. oh, forget it, you already know.

JR: Chicago Cubs. Duh.

NL East Winner

Eli: Atlanta Braves. I think the team is back to having elite pitching, having added Derek Lowe and Javy Vazquez to anchor their rotation.  They’ve got a lot of good young players who are set to improve, and I think they’ll end up eking out a first-place finish in a pretty tough division.  If Chipper Jones can stay healthy for 140 or more games, that’ll help immensely (this type of “if Good Player X is good, his team will be good” analysis is brought to you by Tim McCarver).

JR: Philadelphia Phillies. I maintain that New York’s shortcomings the past two seasons have been coincidental, and their offense will be firmly entrenched in its prime. But the only changes I can see from last year’s World Series champion are for the better.

NL West Winner

Eli: Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Diamondbacks are young and pretty good, the Dodgers just have too much talent not to win the division.  The offense is the best in the division, and there’s enough starting pitching to get the job done, even without Derek Lowe.  Clayton Kershaw could be a real difference-maker for the rotation — a 3.50 ERA isn’t out of the question for him.

JR: Los Angeles Dodgers. They have an offense to match the Cubs, except the majority of those hitters are just reaching their prime. It’s scary how good that can be. They don’t have the Cubs’ pitching, but it’s not bad, and I think they might be the team to beat in the NL.

NL Wild Card

Eli: New York Mets. Too much talent to miss the playoffs again.  I’m not reading too much into the collapses of the past two years.

JR: New York Mets. Finally, they clinch. Their bullpen’s reconstruction was the final missing piece.

AL Central Winner

Eli: Kansas City Royals. Yeah, I’m probably nuts.  But I really like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, Meche and Greinke are great anchors for the pitching staff, and Dayton Moore did a nice job shoring up the bullpen.  This pick has as much to do with the mediocrity of the rest of the AL Central as it does with the Royals’ ability, but even still, I think the Royals are going to be an actual major-league team this year.  Their main problem last year was not scoring runs, and I think they’ve added a few pieces that’ll get them over the hump.  Or at least halfway up the hump, with the top of it in sight, if you squint a little bit and turn your head to the left.

JR: Cleveland Indians. Nobody is convinced Cliff Lee will keep it going, but last year’s BABIP suggests otherwise. Suppose Fausto finally fruitions, and now the pitching staff is redonkulous. There really isn’t disputing their offense’s capabilities either – they’re the best of a weak division.

AL East Winner

Eli: Boston Red Sox. They’re probably the best team in baseball.  A loaded offense, a lights-out bullpen and seven passable starting pitchers for depth.  I think they have the best shot of any team at 100 wins.

JR: Boston Red Sox. AJ Burnett will break, Alex Rodriguez will wilt in the post-steroid smog, and Atlas Sabathia will stop shrugging eventually. The Rays were cute last year, but the probability of the Red Sox being awesomeness remains too great.

AL West Winner

Eli: Oakland A’s. This division is pretty bad.  Matt Holliday is a good hitter anywhere, regardless of whether his numbers were inflated by Coors (they were).  He’ll be a big presence in the middle of the order, and Jason Giambi and Jack Cust will provide some pop behind him.  The starting pitching is pretty young, but it’ll do here.  I think 85 wins take the West.

JR: Anaheim Angels. Without much thought, I’ll just say the Angels, because they always win and it’s never close.

AL Wild Card

Eli: New York Yankees. They’ll return to the playoffs after their brief hiatus.  Too much offense not to creep back toward 90 wins.  And, of course, they added one of the best pitchers in baseball in the offseason.  That can’t hurt.  If everyone stays healthy, it’s probably the best starting rotation 1-5 in the majors.

JR: New York Yankees. They have the best combined Win Values of any team in baseball.

NL MVP

Eli: David Wright. He’s exactly the kind of player that baseball writers would love to give an MVP award to.  This is the year they’ll finally give it to him, since everyone is bored with Albert Pujols’ excellence.

JR: Albert Pujols. (JR did not provide an explanation, but I imagine he meant to say, “Pujols is still in his prime, is a stud, I am from Milwaukee and I love Danny Gokey and bowling.)

AL MVP

Eli: Grady Sizemore. This was actually a tough call.  Most of baseball’s superstars seem to be in the National League, which makes the MVP race in the AL dependent on a lot of other factors that are hard to project.  However, if the Indians get into the playoffs, Sizemore might finally get the recognition he deserves.  One of baseball’s lowest-profile superstars, he’ll probably end up with another 30-30 season and one of those “lifetime achievement/make-up call” MVPs that are awarded because a great player hasn’t gotten one yet in the past.

JR: Grady Sizemore. (JR did not provide an explanation, but I imagine he meant to say, “Sizemore is just entering his prime, is a stud, I am from Milwaukee and I love Danny Gokey and bowling.)

NL Cy Young

Eli: Brandon Webb. He’s consistently awesome, and he’ll be awesome again this season.  The Diamondbacks’ offense should be better this year, which will probably help him get a few more wins.  You know, THE single-most important criteria for Cy Young voters.

JR: Cole Hamels. If he doesn’t break down, he’s a superstar.

AL Cy Young

Eli: CC Sabathia. With the Yankees’ offense behind him, he’ll get plenty of run support, inflating his WIN TOTALS.  That’ll be enough for the voters if the Yankees can get into the playoffs.

JR: James Shields. If Tampa continues to contend, it will because of its bright young pitching staff.